A Tale of two OKC Offenses

The NBA playoffs have been a wild ride so far with a barrage of 4-point plays, 4^th quarter comebacks, and even game winning shots. Yet, perhaps the most befuddling story of the playoffs has been the inconsistent Oklahoma City offense. With two of the most capable scorers in the entire NBA in Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant, the Thunder offense has at times looked unstoppable, and at others looked like it didn’t even belong in the playoffs.

The late game offense in particular seems to lack significant rhythm and flow in crunch time, and when the first option is nullified by the opposing defense, one of OKC’s star players too often settles for a contested look. 

The assist is often a misleading statistic when considering the concepts of a potential assist (a good pass to a shooter who misses a shot, or gets fouled) and an accidental assist (a meaningless pass to a player who happens to shoot an unexpected shot, yielding a semi-unwarranted assist to the passer), but the Thunder’s offense has typically succeeded with better ball movement that spaces the floor and keeps the defense a step out of the paint for their stars to better attack. Posting up Westbrook and Durant and running the Westbrook-Durant pick and roll are two of my favorite offensive plays run by the Thunder, and these sets awarded them terrific success in games 2 and 3. Running these plays lures double teams, and Westbrook is an elite passer in these situations.

Yet, for a large part of games 4 and 5, Oklahoma City inexplicably went away from these successful offensive sets and resorted to one-dimensional basketball, relying on their athletic advantage to create a shot. It actually “worked” in game 5 (barely), but one has to wonder if this type of play is consistent enough to even get out of this second round.

Let’s take a look at some statistics. Using the “advanced” analytic metric of AST% (percentage of makes that were assisted), this figure can give us a relative idea of the type of ball movement OKC employed to get the ball in the basket. As one would presume, OKC’s AST% figure is 52.1% in wins, and 47.2% in losses – a significant margin. However, it’s important to dive even deeper when making the argument that the offense still sputtered despite the win in game 5. In games 4 and 5 of the L.A. series, OKC registered an AST% figure of 42.4% and 51.5% respectively. However, that figure is hiked up to 62.2% and 59.1% in games 2 and 3.

Here are a few highlights of some brilliant ball movement that created some open looks for Oklahoma City.

In the clip we can see some post ups, nice pick-and-roll sets between Westbrook and Durant, and some effective spacing by the Thunder as they are able to shift the ball to the weak side and throw off the defense. By my unofficial count, the Westbrook-Durant pick-and-roll works basically every time IF and only if, Westbrook makes the correct read. However, there are some times where Westbrook hesitates to thread the pass (which he is very capable of), and settles for a much lower percentage shot as shown below.

It’s always maddening when Westbrook takes matters into his own hands instead of making the correct read, but even worse is when OKC takes the ball into the half court offense with no plan, and resorts to jacking up threes.

It’s hard to watch sometimes, but OKC has proved that they can run sets to get good looks, and they have the talent to do so. There’s been a lot of heat on Scott Brooks lately, and rightfully so, but he has shown us in games 6 and 7 of the Memphis series as well as games 2 and 3 of the Clippers series that he knows how to run an effective offense. OKC just has to get in the rhythm, get their stars in the pick and roll to collapse the defense, and make the correct pass. It’s easier said than done, but it has been done before.

Skip Bayless often makes impulsive and critical remarks to gather interest, and often comments on intangibles in sports, rather than formulating effective statistical arguments. However, he has tweeted “the only team that can beat Oklahoma City is Oklahoma City” after nearly every Thunder playoff game this postseason. Skip may actually be correct on this one. Oklahoma City’s offensive stars breathe life and efficiency into the overall offensive unit when the ball is rotating and keeping the defense off balance. However, when the ball stops moving, the Thunder offense becomes one dimensional and easy to defend.

Which OKC offense will we see in game 6?

KD's Case in the MVP Race

If there were ever a year in which Kevin Durant could actually wrestle away the MVP trophy from LeBron James, it would be this one.

As expected, the Thunder offense has been wildly inconsistent post-Westbrook knee surgery, going 7-5 in the 12 games since the surgery December 27. Those 12 games have disclosed some harsh developments in the Thunder’s overall play including Reggie Jackson’s inconsistency as a playmaker, Serge Ibaka’s inability to create shots of his own, and requiring Derek Fisher to play extended minutes. However, number 35 is the only player on Oklahoma City’s payroll who has been consistent on both sides of the ball sans Westbrook.

In fact, consistent doesn’t even do him justice. Kevin Durant has been spectacular.

In the aforementioned 12 games, Durant has averaged 36.3 points, 5.5 assists, and 7.5 rebounds on 50% shooting from the field and fewer turnovers per game (2.8) than he averaged with Westbrook sharing the court (3.3). Oh, and while we’re at it, he’s averaged 4.2 more shot attempts, 3 more free throw attempts, and more minutes per game during this stretch.

It’s pretty obvious that if he can continue to put up these high volumes consistently, Kevin Durant will be the favorite to win the MVP award. No player in the NBA can score as efficiently as KD can, and very few have the extra level he has in the fourth quarter. But the MVP award isn’t necessarily awarded to the best NBA player, but the most valuable one, and there are a lot of intangibles KD will need to fall in place in order to effectively display the enormous value he provides to the Thunder in a way that will get him votes.

Define His Value by Production

Oklahoma City will need to win enough games without Westbrook to comfortably tread water around the top of the western conference record wise, and eventually finish the season strong with a healthy Westbrook and glide into a top 2 seed to add weight to the MVP credibility. A huge chunk of “value” comes from wins added from the roster, and to qualify Durant as the MVP, we must prove that OKC would be a garbage team without him, or at least try to.

Offensive and defensive rating statistics aren’t always indicative of a player’s true value on the court, but it is at least a good start. The offense scores at a rate of 107.3 points per 100 possessions when Durant is on the floor, and 103.2 when he sits per NBA.com. This is a substantial difference: about the difference between a 3^rd ranked offense and a 16^th ranked offense. There are many other factors that go into this discussion, but considering he has posted these numbers with over 1500 minutes played and understanding all of these minutes are meaningful minutes (Durant sits during garbage time), it’s at least somewhat conclusive that he elevates this offense from “lottery team” to “elite level”.

However, there’s even more that goes into it. To better prove this theory, we should hypothetically replace Durant with a mid-tier power forward (replacement player, someone along the lines of Trevor Ariza), reconstruct the offense such that Jackson accumulates a greater percentage of touches, consider the harsh disadvantages of thrusting Serge Ibaka into a second option, and factor in Scott Brooks’ reluctance to tinker with starting lineups.

These indemonstrable claims seem to add weight to the original claim that removing Durant from the roster would face OKC with catastrophic consequences. Even with Westbrook playing his expected 50 or so games this season, it’s hard to see this Durant-less offense cracking the top half in the league. The Thunder defense would still be good it seems, but in the ultra-competitive western conference, this would likely be a lottery/fringe playoff team.

Win Games

OKC is 30-10 currently (as of when this article is written). If they could finish the season on this pace with 60 wins AND Durant continues this dominant performance through the rest of the season, that should be enough to qualify him for his first MVP. Let’s talk about exactly why.

First off, the team struggled getting out of the gate without Westbrook. There was a nice win on the road against a decent Charlotte team and a dominating performance at home against Houston, but OKC has lost games to Portland, Brooklyn, Utah, Denver, and Memphis. Yes, most of these are western conference teams, but 5 losses in 8 games plants a substantial blemish on Durant’s record.

However, losing Westbrook to injury proved to be such an abrupt situation, and adjustments had to be made on the fly to account for his absence. “One night he played, the next night they said he was out for a few months”, said Durant about the injury. The Portland and Brooklyn losses were specifically a result of poor late game offense by OKC, but to harness Durant with responsibility for the losses to Denver (Foye’s fortunate long range shooting), Utah (poor first half defense), and Memphis (OKC just missed some open threes) would be unreasonable.

The point is that it sometimes takes luck to win NBA games, and takes even more luck to win consistently. The hiccups in the offense in the few games after the Westbrook injury are to be expected as adjustments are made on the fly, but as Durant continues to post these enormous stat totals, it is unfair to cast the blame for inconsistent offensive performance solely on his shoulders.

If we have effectively concluded that OKC would most likely be a lottery/fringe playoff team in Durant’s absence in the ruthless western conference, then it should be clear enough to distinguish the amount of value he brings to the team in terms of wins. MVP candidates bring value to their teams in different ways; Kevin Love may elevate the Wolves from a 25-win team to a 42-win team (just a rough guess). Durant probably adds a similar total; however raising a team from “borderline playoff” to “championship contender” establishes much more credibility. Also, factoring in the relatively relaxed attitude LeBron has been playing with thus far to conserve energy for the playoffs, and the much smaller (comparatively) role he plays on offense), I think that gives Durant the edge here.

Season Preview No. 2: Breakout players, awards, stating the obvious, etc.

Breakout players 

One of my favorite things to do before the season starts is predict who will have a breakout year. It’s always fun to see guys like Paul George and James Harden really excel after a few years of growing pains in the league. There are a lot of guys I expect to have big years this year, not necessarily because of consistent development (although that is certainly part of it), but because of a larger allocation of minutes stemming from a trade of another player at that position or simply because more playing time is in just in the order. 

Eric Bledsoe – I expect Bledsoe to put up double-digit point totals and good assist numbers this season as his role is extended from a bench guard in L.A. to a starting shooting guard in Phoenix. Bledsoe has the versatility to play both guard positions, and given the lack of depth behind him and Goran Dragic, I expect his mpg numbers to hover in the mid 30s throughout the year. He has a solid health history since being in the league and 3 years of experience, 2  of which are behind the best point guard in the league, and Phoenix should be willing to let him play as much as possible in what is otherwise a lost season. There may be some growing pains at first, but I expect Bledsoe to translate as an effective guard going forward.

Enes Kanter – Kanter sat on the bench for what was a near perfect adjustment period for an NBA center (3 years), and is now awarded the starting role in his 4^th year. Kanter has backed up perhaps the most offensively proficient center in the league in Al Jefferson during his time in the NBA, and should now receive about twice the minutes he had been receiving before. Kanter is a terrific rebounder, particularly offensively, and shot very well around the rim and from the field in general. Kanter also posted the best defensive rating on the team last season, and how the Kanter-Favors frontline develops for Utah will be the most interesting development for this team going forward. I expect Kanter to have a good season.

Derrick Favors – Similar to Kanter, Favors was also a 3^rd overall selection and should also have  a breakout year. This is obvious; the Favors-Millsap-Jefferson frontcourt logjam in Utah hindered his development a tad, but now that Millsap is gone Favors can have full responsibility of the starting power forward. He’s already a terrific rebounder, good defender, and spectacular finisher around the rim, so a little bit of offensive polish is needed to make the next jump in performance. Even if he never becomes completely polished offensively, the jump in minutes alone should solidify him as a crucial piece going forward for the Jazz. His name was a pretty obvious selection for this list and he is my bet for most improved player.

Larry Sanders – Sanders is already one of the best centers in the league in terms of defending and rebounding combined, and I expect his minutes to take a decent leap this season. Sanders looks like a perennial defensive player of the year candidate going forward in my eyes, especially since he stays pretty healthy overall. Sanders had the highest defensive rating on the Bucks last season (min 40 games played), and not only posesses the athleticism and strength to protect the rim, but also the defensive smarts. As for his offensive side, it’s not as promising, but Sanders still finishes at the rim very well and had a low turnover rate last season.

John Wall – Wall would be my bet for most improved player if not for the fact that his minutes can’t increase that much from last season. This means his per game stats won’t balloon that much, and I think that will make him a bit less noticed overall for the MIP award (also, there’s a slight injury risk here). But holy cow do I expect big things from wall. Wall came back from injury last season and torched opponents, cutting his turnover rate, passing better than ever, and shooting a tad better than league average from the field (a good number for a high volume shooter). He can get to the line almost at will, and with Bradley Beal spacing the floor and Gortat setting screens, I expect Wall to significantly boost Washington’s offensive performance from years past. He has a bit of work to do defensively, but I think he will see an all-star appearance this year.

Anthony Davis – This is perhaps the most obvious bet for most improved player, but I favor (couldn’t resist) Derrick in this situation because I don’t think Davis’ jump in performance will be as significant as Favors’. However, Davis is a good bet for an all-star and all-team NBA selection within the next couple years for good reason. He rebounded very well for a rookie last year, shot well from all around the floor, and showed signs of developing into a game changing defender last season, and because his development is accelerating so quickly, I expect him to take a leap in performance this season.

Jimmy Butler – Butler will begin his third season in the league as the starting shooting guard for Chicago, which should grant him around 8 or so more minutes per game than last season. Butler is already a terrific wing defender, and should continue to develop a credible 3-point shot to further enhance his value. In what I expect to be the best defense in the league in Chicago’s system, Butler should thrive defensively and gather a few rebounds to do some stat padding.

Reggie Jackson – Jackson was quickly thrust into a starting role in last year’s playoffs and actually fared quite well shooting 48% from the field and playing much better than expected. That experience will benefit him while Westbrook sits with injury for the first few weeks of the season, and I expect him to pick up where he left off. His outside shot has improved tremendously, and the relatively easy competition he faces at the beginning of the season should prepare him for a strong 6^th man role when Westbrook comes back. If he plays well at the beginning of the season without Westbrook, I’d expect to see him play at least 22 minutes per game coming off the bench.

Andre Drummond – Drummond’s situation makes him a unique selection for this list; he has potential to break out this year, but it’s hard to see how much his role is increased with Josh Smith and Greg Monroe on the team. If Monroe is traded and Drummond stays healthy, his numbers should substantially inflate, but his health going forward is the biggest question here. Drummond posted ridiculous a ridiculous rebounding rate last season, one that would translate to 15 rebounds per game, and shot 60% from the field. I expect him to improve (his minutes should increase by about 8-10 mpg), but the magnitude of his development is contingent upon his health and size of his role.

MVP

There are a surprising amount of NBA nerds predicting Kevin Durant to take home the MVP trophy over LeBron James this year. Even though I’m a Thunder fan, consider me among the pessimists of that argument. I actually expect Durant to improve his production this year in terms of passing and scoring, particularly while Westbrook is sidelined with his injury, but LeBron is still the king for a reason. James registered the 7^th highest player efficiency rating ever recorded last season while shooting 56% from the field and 40% from deep. As Wade and Bosh continue to Age, I expect LeBron to continue to pick up the slack for the Heat, and win his 3^rd consecutive MVP.

Apologies to (in order): Kevin Durant, Derrick Rose, Chris Paul

DPOY

To me this is a toss up between Roy Hibbert, Marc Gasol, and Joakim Noah. I’m predicting the Bulls to have the best defense in the league, but Noah hasn’t played more than 66 games in a season since 2008-2009, and because he is seemingly always battling nagging injuries while resting and playing, he falls short of the top. Gasol is the defending champion of this award, after anchoring the best (Indiana and Memphis were 1a and 1b) defense in the league last year, but a new coaching staff in Memphis gives me doubts as to whether it can regain its dominance.

Roy Hibbert is a flat out beast on the defense that truly orchestrates a seamless flow of coordinated movement on that end. Paul George is the only player in that starting lineup that stands out as a great team defender while the others are good but not great defenders. Hibbert’s positioning on defense and ability to block and alter shots in the lane places him atop this list in my opinion, and his improved conditioning should allow him to hover around 30 mpg during the regular season. He also has a blemish-free health record over the past few years which gives him even more credibility for receiving this award.

EDIT: Why no Dwight Howard? I may be a little biased on this one, but I don’t see Howard becoming the defensive terror he was in Orlando again. Howard’s health has substantially declined over the past few seasons, and while he gives the Rockets an upgrade defensively, I don’t think it’ll be enough to win DPOY.

Apologies to (in order): Marc Gasol, Joakim Noah, Larry Sanders, Dwight Howard

NBA Champion

So who is going to win it all? The short answer is I have no idea. A lot of teams could make it to the finals this year, and I think the Heat, Bulls, Thunder, Clippers, Warriors, Pacers, Spurs, Nets, and even Rockets have a good shot at winning a title. The NBA is a game of inches, and depending on injuries, home court advantage, coaching, and just plain luck, the title could swing in a bunch of different ways.

I don’t think Miami 3-peats this season. I like the potential of the Bulls’ offense with Derrick Rose back in the lineup, and I like them to top Miami to make it to the finals. In the west I think the Thunder’s starting unit (Westbrook-Sefalosha-Durant-Ibaka-Perkins lineups killed opponents last year during the regular season per NBA.com/stats) continues its dominance in the postseason and knocks off the Warriors (surprise) to make it to the finals again.

Bulls vs. Thunder is a toss up in my mind. I honestly have no idea who would win this series if this prediction actually came to fruition.

I’ll take the Thunder to win the championship in 2014.

This is my prediction.

Enjoy the season NBA fans!

Season Preview/Pedictions 2013-2014

My, how the time flies. It seems like just yesterday we were on the edge of our seats for the first NBA finals game 7 in 3 years before LeBron slammed the door shut on his second consecutive NBA championship.

Over the offseason the Bulls got their superstar back from injury, the Pacers deepened their bench, the Nets reloaded through a blockbuster trade, and the rest of the NBA did everything in their power to shut Miami’s championship window. So here I am to present my blind claims of why the Heat won’t repeat, which teams will make the playoffs, and predict win totals of each team that look good on paper until someone like Kyrie Irving or Steph Curry suffer catastrophic injuries and and completely throw off my projections and make me look like an idiot.

East

1. Miami Heat 61-21

Not much to see here, Miami should continue to run the tables during the regular season with the majority of their roster unchanged. Dwyane Wade may sit a few more minutes than he did last year due to age and injury, but LeBron remains king for now, and the Heat have the added bonus of residual chemistry from the past two seasons.

2. Chicago Bulls 60-22

Chicago finally has the MVP back, and the negative effects of Tom Thibodeau’s extreme minute allocation to his starting 5 should balance out with the positive chemistry this unit exudes. Butler has another year of experience under his belt, and with Rose back on the roster, Hinrich, Gibson, and Dunleavy should provide relief to a starting five that has been banged up for the past couple years. I may be  a tad bullish (sorry) on the Bulls, but I really think Rose hits the ground running right off the bat.

3. Indiana Pacers 52-30

The NBA’s best defense in 2012-2013 retains its entire starting five again this season, not to mention a stacked bench that won’t actually self-destruct at the end of quarters. Luis Scola, C.J. Watson, and Danny Granger (hopefully) replace Tyler Hansbrough, D.J. Augustin, and Sam Young this year, and I expect Paul George and Roy Hibbert to both take a leap in terms of performance this year, even if it is a minor one.

4. Brooklyn Nets 52-30

I know I only have them finishing 4^th in the conference, but I expect Brooklyn to stumble through the regular season to a 3 or 4 seed and then make some noise in the playoffs. Garnett and Pierce will be under strict supervision as far as minutes go; I’d be surprised to see either significantly surpass 30 or so mpg this year.

5. New York Knicks 49-33

The Knicks took a downturn this offseason and I think it’ll bite them in the butt this year after finishing as the 2 seed last season. Bargnani doesn’t make this team significantly better in really any way unless he can go back to shooting like he did and 2010, and the continual health of Tyson Chandler remains uncertain for now.

6. Atlanta Hawks 42-40

Another freaking Pacers-Hawks first round that no one watches anyway because it’s on NBAtv? Crap I need to change this. Atlanta is boring as hell but should somehow stumble their way into the playoffs again as Lou Williams returns from injury and Elton Brand/Paul Millsap tag team the power forward position. Atlanta has potential to go searching for a blockbuster deal to arise at the trade deadline, which could totally throw this ranking off, but those moves are very uncertain so here we stand. Maybe the Cavs/Wizards can slip up a spot or two so as to match up Atlanta with Miami for an uneventful sweep.

7. Washington Wizards 41-41

With a healthy (hopefully) John Wall, this Wizards team looks to finally snag a playoff spot for the first time since 2007-2008. Wall is a stud (more on this later if I get time for it), and the Wall-Beal duo recorded a pleasant rating on NBA.com. Gortat is a nice addition to this roster that formerly featured an indefinitely-sidelined Emeka Okafor (although his value compared to Okafor’s is relatively neutral). The Wizards netted a near-.500 record after Wall returned from injury last season and I expect both players (Beal and Wall) to take a substantial leap in performance this season.

8. Cleveland Cavaliers 41-41

This is perhaps the most unpredictable team in the NBA; with good health and a few breaks this team could win 10 more games than projected. However, I have them right here at 8 considering it’d be optomistic to even pencil in Verajao and Bynum combined for 82 games. Irving has his health history as well, and we can go ahead and assume he’ll be out for at least 15 games as usual. But a healthy Cavs team is very dangerous, especially with Tristan Thompson developing into a force at the power forward position and everyone loves watching Verajao fly around the court for 25 games until he fractures his foot… Okay these injuries are depressing, moving on.

9. Detroit Pistons 40-42

How much will Josh Smith help the Pistons? My bet is not much, at least when Detroit goes big with Drummond, Smith and Monroe all sharing the floor at once. They’ll need  a lot of help from the backcourt to spread the floor here which is asking a lot from Brandon Jennings and company. It’ll be interesting to see what Joe Dumars does with Monroe as trade bait. Barring a spectacular sophomore season from Andre Drummond, this team is lottery bound.

10. Milwaukee Bucks 36-46

Milwaukee has a total of four players remaining on this year’s roster from last year, but should still finish in about the same position despite the overhaul. Brandon Knight and O.J. Mayo supplement this deep but unspectacular frontcourt and the only long term player I see on this roster is Larry Sanders who coincidentally just signed a 4 year extension at a very reasonable price. Milwaukee will evaluate Brandon Knight to see if he is the point guard of the future, which is very unlikely and why I have the Bucks finishing 10^th in the east.

11. Toronto Raptors 36-46

I actually have Toronto finishing a tad higher than last season (34 wins), mainly because of the development of Jonas Valanciunas, but the major negative of the new bench (Augustin, Novak, Hansbrough) pretty much balances this out. There’s a new GM in town which means practically everyone is movable especially Rudy Gay. If Ujiri can find a buyer for Gay, I expect him to be gone quickly.

12. Charlotte Bobcats 26-56

Al Jefferson provides watchability at the very least, and perhaps a few more wins than last year’s total of 21. The young core of Kemba Walker, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, and Cody Zeller will continue to develop chemistry together, and Charlotte will hopefully toe the line between being watchable and solidifying a strong lottery pick. It’s still going to be a rough one for Bobcat fans.

13. Boston Celtics 25-57

The Celtics will be very bad this year, and the only reason I don’t place them even lower comes from the puny competition they face at the bottom of the eastern conference. Boston Plays Toronto, Orlando and Philadelphia 4 times each, as well as Charlotte 3 times so I expect them to practically walk in to a third of their wins there. Rondo will be out for most of the season, if not all of it, but I don’t think his presence would bring them into contention anyway.

14. Orlando Magic 23-59

Orlando is playing it safe here by building and developing talent, and this unit should develop microscopically from last season as I have them finishing with 3 more wins than the 2012-2013 campaign. Vucevic is a quality center, one I have my eye on, and Victor Olidipo is one to watch for the rookie of the year award. The Magic will be bad, but could be bad enough to lock up a top 5 pick again in next year’s stacked draft.

15. Philidelphia 76ers 12-70

They’re going to suck. That’s about it. Nerlens Noel may be inactive the entire season, and Jrue Holiday is long gone. Defensively they have some talent, but the sixers should finish last in points per possession offensively. Evan Turner will have more ball handling capabilities, so his development this season is really the only thing to watch here.

West

1. San Antonio Spurs 56-26

No particular team made significant strides in the Western Conference over the offseason, and this convinces me that San Antonio will clinch the top seed by a hair this season. Tim Duncan surely won’t replicate the productive season he had last season, but Kawhi Leonard’s development should partially make up for it and no one coaches as well as Greg Popovich.

2. Oklahoma City Thunder 55-27

OKC will miss Russell Westbrook for the first few weeks of the season, but his inactivity should only set them back a tad with a relatively easy November schedule. Kevin Durant should improve even more this season (gasp) as should Ibaka and Westbrook, and this window is far from closed. Scott Brooks will be challenged to innovate more offensively, but those challenges will mostly arise in playoff time, and OKC should remain among the best of the west.

3. Los Angeles Clippers 54-28

The west’s top three were the hardest for me to rank, simply because all three seem interchangeable. Yes, I allotted L.A. with two fewer wins than last season, but the west simply got better. The teams at the top slipped a little bit (Tim Duncan aging, Westbrook injury, Denver’s dysfunction) from last season, but those slips were minor (save for Denver) compared to the improvements made by teams like Houston, Golden State, New Orleans, Minnesota, and Portland. As for the Clippers, Doc Rivers should improve this team overall, but it’s hard to pinpoint the exact potential of the Griffin-Jordan frontline defensively. Factoring in Chris Paul’s yearly knee issues makes me hesitant to place them higher than third, thus here they stand.

4. Houston Rockets 52-30

The Rockets will certainly receive a performance boost with Dwight Howard on the roster, and if he stays healthy it likely places Houston among the elite in the west. But it’s hard to predict Howard’s performance given his injury issues over the past few years, and while he certainly makes them better, I don’t think D12 takes them quite over the top just yet. Omer Asik provides a quality backup, but I’d be surprised if Houston didn’t trade him for rotational pieces sometime during the season. Houston will be good, but not quite good enough for a top 3 seed this year.

5. Golden State Warriors 52-30

This is another team I desperately want to place higher with all of the talent on this roster plus the tremendous coaching, but the injury risk makes me hesitant to do so. Stephen Curry had his first “healthy” season last year since 2010-2011, and Andrew Bogut has played a total of 43 regular season games over the past two years. Andre Iguodala plus a healthy Bogut make this team a legit championship contender, but it’s hard to predict how healthy they will be overall throughout the season. If they remain intact through the playoffs, the Warriors are a good bet to make it to the Western Conference Finals.

6. Memphis Grizzlies 50-32

The Grizz have the setback of the growing pains that come from a new coaching system, but Mike Miller’s addition over the offseason should help this team space the floor on offense. The core is still intact with Conley, Allen, Gasol, Randolph and Prince, but it’s hard to justify this team’s ceiling being considerably higher than 50 wins or so. I still love this defense, but Memphis takes a small step back this year with the coaching change to the 6 seed.

7. Minnesota Timberwolves 44-38

I’m banking on this being the year that things finally come together for Minnesota. Rubio, Love, and Pekovic are all healthy (for now), and there are some quality rotational pieces filling in the gaps. Kevin Martin comes in from Oklahoma City as does Corey Brewer from Denver, and this team should light it up offensively with a quality inside-out balance. It’s defensively suspect, but not terribly; the Love-Pekovic defensive deficiencies are a bit overblown in my mind which is why I think this is a playoff team.

8. New Orleans Pelicans 42-40

I have the Pellies barely surpassing the Mavs for the final playoff spot in the west just by a gut feeling. I expect Anthony Davis to have a big year 2 in New Orleans here, and I’m a huge fan of Jrue Holiday. Eric Gordan can be used as an efficient scorer or trade bait, and Ryan Anderson and Tyreke Evans provide offensive assistance. Monty Williams is a solid coach as well, and I’m excited for what this team can do.

9. Dallas Mavericks 40-42

I think Dallas certainly has the talent of a playoff team, if it wasn’t for being in the loaded western conference and the toughest division in basketball. Everyone in this division is very talented, which means 16 games total against said talent alone, and I think Dallas is the least proficient of the pack. Dirk is in a contract year, and with his retirement is quickly approaching, it makes me wonder if Mark Cuban has any tricks up his sleeve.

10. Denver Nuggets 40-42

What a tumble. From 57 wins in 2012-2013 I have Denver winning 17 less games this season because of injuries and poor management. A new coach and injuries to Gallinari and Wilson Chandler make me question this team’s potential this season. They have the plusses of a strong home court advantage and a relatively easy division, but I think this team underperforms this season.

11. Portland Trail Blazers 38-44

NBA bloggers are much more optimistic about the Blazers’ potential this season than I am. I think this team will continue to struggle defensively with Robin Lopez protecting the rim (although he’s a significant upgrade over J.J. Hickson), and I don’t think Damian Lillard makes a significant leap in performance going forward. LaMarcus Aldridge has just about peaked at a “great but not elite” power forward in this league, and a second year head coach convinces me that Portland isn’t just ready yet.

12. Los Angeles Lakers 38-44

Lol. I will say I’m super excited to see Kobe come back, and reports are saying that Pau Gasol is looking “better than expected”. But there’s no way the Lakers make the playoffs this year with Chris Kaman starting at center and Nick Young registering significant minutes. They will be horrid defensively, even worse than last season, and I expect them to get beat up pretty badly by the Clippers and Warriors.

13. Sacramento Kings 30-52

Greivis Vasquez makes this roster a bit more intriguing with his passing ability, but Sacramento’s new ownership has a lot of work to do to drag this team out of the cellar. The only thing worth monitoring this year is Demarcus Cousins’ performance as the clock ticks toward the deadline for a contract extension. The Kings have a lot of work to do before they can contend again.

14. Utah Jazz 25-57

I’m a bit more optimistic than most about this team’s potential, and factoring in a strong home court advantage I expect Utah to scratch out 25 wins this season. Jefferson and Millsap are both gone, but this comes at the perfect time as I expect Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter to blossom (more to come on this later hopefully). Trey Burke will go through some growing pains, but this season has been thrown away already, and the young core of Burke, Burks, Hayward, Kanter, and Favors could develop into something special in a year or two.

15. Phoenix Suns 19-62

Phoenix is going to be bad, even worse than last year with no Luis Scola or Marcin Gortat in the starting lineup. Goran Dragic is still here, and Eric Bledsoe was the key piece in the three team deal between the Clippers, Suns, and Bucks this offseason, so the Dragic-Bledsoe pairing will be somewhat interesting to watch. My guy to watch, however, is Alex Len; I think he has tremendous potential and is very young as well (20), so while he won’t be amazing anytime soon, I think he could develop into something very nice for this organization in the future.